BitDrum App

BitDrum Edge

The fair-value model behind every call: what BitDrum thinks the window is worth versus what the DreamDEX book is charging.

BitDrum Edge

Fair value vs. the book

Syncing

NEUTRAL0%edge --

Model P(UP)--

Market P(UP) · YES mid--

50%

Rationale

Locating the live DreamDEX Up/Down window for this cadence.

DirectionNEUTRAL

Hurdle--

Spread--

Signal Inputs

What the model sees

Live index--

Window open--

Move vs open--

Time left--

Realized σ / min--

z-score--

Best UP ask--

Best DOWN ask--

The model

P(UP) = Φ( ln(S / K) / (σ · √τ) )

S is the live index, K the window's opening price, σ the realized per-minute volatility from the last hour of 1-minute candles, τ the minutes left. Edge is the gap between that and the YES mid. A call only fires when the gap clears half the spread plus a 3% margin, so it never recommends paying through a wide book. Driftless, fee-blind, and short-horizon — treat it as a signal, not a guarantee.